Eye on the Triangle

Emilia Rivadeneira 0:00
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Good morning everyone. Hope you're enjoying your day. My name is Emilia Rivadeneira, host of Eye on the Triangle. And with further ado, let's get into some news

Well, hello and welcome to WKNC's Eye on the Triangle, your source of local news, where we dive deep into the pressing issues affecting our communities. I'm your host. Emilia Rivadeneira, and here with us today is Thomas Birkland, Professor of Public Policy at NC State University. Thank you so much for being here today with us, Thomas, how are you doing?

Thomas Birkland 1:10
I'm good. Thanks for having me.

Emilia Rivadeneira 1:12
Yeah, for sure. Um, so as we both know, Hurricane Helene happened a couple, you know, weeks ago, and it brought devastation to western North Carolina. And so today I wanted to talk with you about just how this devastation can disrupt voting in the swing state. And just like you know, how can it affect in general public policy and the elections and so just to like, get us started, in your opinion, how do natural disasters like hurricanes shape the focus of public policy agendas?

Thomas Birkland 1:53
Well, I've spent my career studying how a big event like this, called the focusing event, gets people to pay more attention to an issue they might not have paid attention to before. So in our state right now, we're paying more attention to hurricanes and the damage they can do that we than we were, say, three weeks ago. Of course, we have a lot of experience with hurricanes in our state, which makes this event different for North Carolina, I think. And one of the things I study is, you know, how unique event, you know, events that seem really unique and different can really have an influence on agendas. This happened in the mountains. You know, we don't really think of the mountains as being the part of North Carolina that's going to get hit by a hurricane, right? We usually think of the coastal areas, and then down here, in the in the in the triangle, you know, we sometimes get, you know, the storms that come in from the coast. But this one went way out to the West, right, and did damage in this part of the state. A lot of people thought were, you know, immune from these sort of weather disasters. And so this is going to really cause us to pay a great deal of attention to

to the possibility of other future storms like this. And, you know, this was a hurricane that came inland and dropped a lot of rain. That was what this event was about, and with climate change and everything, we know that these events are becoming rainier and more intense, and so I think this is going to cause us to pay some greater attention to that problem. What the long term changes are, I'm not so sure about, but certainly it's got people's attention.

Emilia Rivadeneira 3:19
Yeah, for sure, and especially with the upcoming elections, I feel like, what are the implications that Helene has for the political agendas of the different parties?

Thomas Birkland 3:34
I don't think it their, the, the implications for their agendas are particularly great. I don't think it's going to change many minds. I mean, you know, one party has been pretty clear that they believe that, you know that this members believe that policy, that climate change is real, it's a it's a known phenomenon, it's scientifically validated, and the disaster research community also holds that view, and another party does not believe that. And the other party has, in fact, in various times and places, enacted legislation that made it more difficult to respond to the challenges of climate change. So is it going to change those positions? Probably not much. You know, the big question is, your your listeners, and may have read The New York Times story yesterday about how the state legislature has not taken up legislation that would reduce the risks of these sort of hazards, especially up in the mountains and, and so the question is whether that will change that. I'm not sure it's going to change it much. The thing that's on the agenda right now is relief and recovery. And of course, disaster relief money will be appropriated, it will be spent in these communities, and you know, help will be provided to people to help them rebuild. But the question the long run is, how do we rebuild these communities? How do we rebuild these communities in a way that reduces risks from something like this? This is going to be a very important issue, but it's going to take a while to learn whether or not this event had much of an effect.

Emilia Rivadeneira 5:14
Yeah, for sure. And does this kind of translate talking about just like the public perception as well. And like the elections, like in what ways might lean, like, influence voter priorities in the election cycle, you know, like with the rebuilding and like reconstruction that needs to happen as well.

Thomas Birkland 5:35
Yeah, I think you know where, where disasters can affect voter sentiment is in the perception of the response to the disaster, right? So, you know, there have been instances in big cities like Chicago where the mayor didn't respond effectively to a snowstorm, right? Didn't plow the streets fast enough, and people got mad that happened in Chicago in the 1980s but you know, we know as as social scientists that that the electoral effects of, of disasters are mixed. There's no, it's, it's hard to say that someone won or lost an election based on a disaster, right? So and the the activities that are under, being undertaken now, are fairly typical of disasters. So there's nothing really odd about this disaster compared to other disasters. I mean, all disasters are in some way unique and, you know, in their situations, but there's also patterns. I mean, you have the the rush to rescue people, the the rush to bring in supplies and equipment and things like that, to start cleaning up debris and whatnot, and rescue people and then rebuild infrastructure, which is a big issue here, you know, power, roads, things like that. You know all that's going to happen, and that's just happening, and it just sort of happens, I wouldn't say automatically, but almost automatically. We have plenty of policies in place to do deal with that. It's also so close to the election that one wonders whether this is going to change anyone's mind, because it's so close, people may have already made up their minds. So the last area that it could have had an effect is in the governor's race. If people perceive the state government and that and say Governor Cooper or Attorney General Stein weren't responding effectively to this disaster, they might be punished in the ballot box, but honestly, based on what we know right now, the governor's race isn't close enough for, for that effect to really, you know, show up. I mean, there might be a few people that are upset, that might change their mind, but most opinions are pretty well fixed on on the governor's race as it is, so I don't think that's going to change that much.

Emilia Rivadeneira 7:41
Yeah, and another thing that I wanted to ask you was specifically about unaffiliated voters. As you mentioned, like some voters might have already, like, made up their minds, but as we know, North Carolina, largest affiliation is unaffiliated voters. And so how this natural disaster kind of, like have an effect? Are there specific like demographics, like demographic groups that might be more influenced by, you know, just like the hurricanes respond from like each candidate to like during this election.

Thomas Birkland 8:18
Um, I'm not sure about in this, this hurricane. I'm not sure that the effects going to be large. You know, most unaffiliated voters have still made up their mind, have expressed a preference, and if you look at the polling data, there are very few undecided voters, and that the people who say they're undecided may not really be undecided. They might be leaning one way or the other. So I don't know that it's going to make a big difference. I need to study this harder. This is one of the difficult things to study about disasters, is in the moment. You know, people like me, people like sociologists, study how communities respond to disasters in the moment. And I have colleagues that go into the field and learn about, you know, how did the community respond? I'm a political scientist, and so I study the long term policy change. So it takes a while for us to learn. I learned, for example, that there are some communities in in the mountains that have a higher Hispanic population than than other communities that are, you know, a higher than than expected, you know, population of Hispanics and and if, if disaster relief is is unevenly distributed, and that people aren't getting the help they need, that demographic group may feel that they were left out and and may respond to the ballot box, but then the question is whether that group is large enough to change sort of the outcome of the election. So in big, broad terms, it may at the margin change a few minds, but it's probably not going to change the outcome of the election. But one area that this is going to have an effect in this particular election is the fact that, you know, mail ballots have already started to go out, right? And so the one thing I'm looking at is. Whether this depresses electoral turnout in the mountains and whether it has a differential impact. In other words, are some communities more likely to not be able to vote? In other words, are they less likely to vote because they can't, because the the post office was damaged or destroyed, because their house isn't there and they can't get mail at it. Or what if you've already got your mail in ballot and you haven't filled it out yet, and you and then you can't get to your house, or your house is damaged. Maybe it got flooded and it damaged your ballot. Now you can probably then go and vote on Election Day or go early vote. But are the early voting places going to be open? I mean, a lot of these places are in schools or in churches and whatnot that might have been damaged or that those facilities may have been turned over to disaster relief and recovery centers, and maybe it's going to be hard for them to serve as early voting places. I haven't looked at that carefully yet to know whether that's the case, but one of the big concerns from both campaigns both parties, is, you know, how this is going to affect people's ability to vote in this part of the state, and I think it's going to have an effect. Then the question is whether or not people say, I'm not going to let this disaster prohibit me from using my voice in the election, right? And so people may be more motivated to overcome the barriers that were created into voting, but in the end, it might not change. You know, electoral turnout that much at all. I trust that election officials are already looking at this and trying to find ways to make it work for people. Because, you know, it's, it's really not good for a democracy to, you know, have a natural disaster prevent people from being able to vote. We want people to participate?

Emilia Rivadeneira 11:42
Yeah, for sure. And actually, one of my subsequent questions was going to be about the effect that Helene has on like accessibility and just timing in general, of mail in ballots for voters in like affected areas in western North Carolina. And another thing that I also wanted to ask was just like, how does this situation with like accessibility highlight, just like, broader challenges of voting accessibility during this type of emergencies, during, like, this type of natural disasters?

Thomas Birkland 12:17
Yeah, well, I mean, it highlights. I mean, there are some people that have trouble, you know, accessing the ballot even without a disaster. You know older people who may be less mobile, that's maybe why they want mail in ballots. You know people that have mobility challenges. You know a lot of early polling places you can drive up and vote. You know. So there's already that. Now you've compounded that by making it harder for everybody, not just those, the people that might have a physical disability or an inability to sort of travel to the polls. I don't know what the effect is going to be. I think it's going to be significant. I mean, it's only one more month of the election. I will say that, speaking for myself, I think sometimes we marvel at the speed with which certain things do recover. Um, you know, already power is being restored in areas that have lost it. Now there's still a lot of people about power, and I don't want to diminish that, a lot of people about water, things like that. But, you know, there's been a lot of people that have moved into the area, like I've seen on social media, and maybe you and your listeners have to trucks of electrical linemen. You know, those electric trucks that, you know, drive out with a big bucket that they raise up to work on power lines. And there's just tons of people coming in from all over the eastern part of the United States and parts of Canada to come and help restore power. And that's just one example. And I hit on power because electrical power, to me, is one of the most important things that you want to restore after a storm, right? Because then you can run things like water pumps, and you can turn on the lights, and you can turn on the cell phones. You know, once you get those restored, people to charge up their phones, things like that. Let's say you're isolated and you've got Starlink, but you still need electricity to make it work, right? So you need, you need power. And so with those things being restored as quickly as they can be, not quickly, but, you know, as quickly as possible, I think that creates a possibility that, while challenging, there'll be ways for people to figure out, a way to go out and vote. I don't envy the people that live in this part of the world right now, it's, it's very difficult, and I think we should keep that in mind and be, you know, compassionate about their situation. And, you know, in a way, I don't think we should expect people to do heroic things to meet their average, everyday needs. I think we should expect people to be helped by outside resources, such as electric alignment, such as, you know, the pilots that are ferrying people in and out of the affected areas, and all those sort of things from search and rescue, things like that. If that goes well, then I think the conditions will exist in which people can are more likely to be able to vote. But little things like, did people lose their IDs? You know, probably not. Most people have their ID in their pocket when they leave the house. But little things like that might affect the administration of the election in the region. And the last thing I'll say is that, you know, telephone lines and stuff like that are needed to transmit data about, you know, who voted, and you know how what the vote counts are, if those remain damaged, you know, getting the returns out of that part of the state might be slower. I think people will be able to by the time election day rolls around, we'll have opportunities and methods will be created to make sure that folks can participate. But how easy it is? It's, it's hard to tell at this point, but to guess it's going to be more challenging than it is for us down here in the triangle.

Emilia Rivadeneira 15:51
No, yeah, for sure. And another thing, well, one of the last things that I wanted to touch is which you kind of like touch on a little bit at the beginning was democracy, like, how does this natural disaster, kind of, like, highlights a broader challenge for democracy, for like people to, like, go and vote and like express, just like their voice and like, you know, in the general sense. So like, you know, how does it affect democracy and like as well? I feel like just the power like the sense of community, how we're seeing people on social media right now, like helping out and like helping, like distributing food and like volunteering as well. Like this, this will have an effect on like, you know, maybe people helping out on like, the day of the election to, like, transport people to vote and all of that.

Thomas Birkland 16:49
Yeah, that's a great point. And you touched on something that the sociologists in particular really know about disasters, is that most people are very pro social in disasters, and the people that respond first to disasters are the people in a disaster, right? And your friends and neighbors. So like, if, if my neighbors had a tree fall on their house? Giving an example. My wife, a few years ago, bought a chainsaw. My wife is better the use of power tools than I am, so she has a lot of experience with it. So okay, I'm gonna get a chainsaw. I'm like, why do we need a chainsaw? I said, Well, we have some trees in our backyard need trimmed, and what if we had a hurricane and we needed to help, right? And that's a pretty good impulse, right? And a lot of people are that way, you know. So you know, if a tree fell on my neighbor's house, we probably go out and help them cut that tree down, you know, or at least, you know, mitigate some of the damage before the professionals came and dealt with it. Most people, want to help and and you see that outpouring of support right now. You see people donating money, donating food, donating paper towels and diapers and stuff. As an aside, I'll mention right now that folks listening, if you want to contribute to this effort, money is a much better way to help right now than material goods, because we often find that when people give material goods and then they get trucked out to the location, then they have to be sorted distributed, and it creates logistical challenges that are really profound. But in the area itself, people are helping each other out. You know, if my cell phone is dead, somebody is probably going to let me make a call here. So fun. That creates community solidarity, right? And that might have small d democratic implications, you know, big implications for people learning. And people already know this, you know, but, but people see examples of how they can work together as a community, regardless of things like political ideology, race, social class, you know, things like that. Those concerns don't disappear during disasters, far from it. But most people, most of the time, want to be helpful and do what they can to help other people. And so this disaster is going to be it. I was about to say it's going to be good. I don't want to say a disaster is good, because that, you know, really demeans, diminishes the impact of the event, but what we find is it activates social capital. We found that to be true in cities like New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, the people came together, which reminds me of another sort of long standing myth that there is about disasters, which is that there's lots of looting, and there's lots of civil disorder and crime and things like that. That's very rare in natural disasters, even in New Orleans, there was little evidence of of, you know, illegality, of looting, you know, things like that. There were some times that people took stuff out of stores, but they were, you know, desperate. They didn't have any food, they didn't have any medicine and things like that. But by and large, these are very rare events. We call it the looting myth of the panic. People don't panic a disaster. So communities do come together, but they need X outside help. They can't do it all themselves, which is why the state brings in resources. And why, the federal government, through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, helps direct resources to the communities. FEMA doesn't do the disaster response, but they help organizations like police, fire, search and rescue do it, but people also help themselves. And so in terms of, like I said, in terms of community solidarity and resilience, we see people usually behaving incredibly well after disasters and doing really good things. As a political scientist, I don't know what that means in terms of things like voting behavior and things like that. I'm not sure it matters much, but it may make people more open and talking to each other and having a good conversation about what they want the future of their communities to be. I'm not saying that. I recommend that we have a bunch of natural disasters to get people to come together and talk that would be a horrible solution to any sort of, you know, community problem we have, but, but, but people do well. I shouldn't say people do well. People do good for each other after natural disasters by and large. And we're seeing that right now in western North Carolina.

Emilia Rivadeneira 21:07
Yeah, for sure. And while this has been a very insightful interview, thank you so much for you know, being here with with us today, is there anything else you would like to add about this topic.

Thomas Birkland 21:23
Now, the only thing I would add is, like I said before, if people want to help, please consider giving to reputable charities. Another number of them have distributed through various media outlets and the News and Observer, for example, the Technician, I believe, published some things about it. Your radio station may have provided information, if not, you may want to do so. There are good groups you can go to. There's always some suspicion about some groups, you know, I don't want to give it. I'm not sure they're legit, but there are people that will help you figure out who's legit and who are doing the most good. But there'll be other opportunities to help in the coming weeks. But right now, it's still early days. You know, the storm only hit a week ago in western North Carolina. It feels like a lot longer ago. It feels like 2,3,4, weeks. It's only been a week. And so there's a lot of work yet to be done. There's a lot we still don't know about what the long term effects are going to be but I think it would be good idea to keep an eye on this and stay involved so that we make sure that we make good decisions to try to prevent something this bad from happening in the future.

Emilia Rivadeneira 22:32
Yeah, for sure. And once again, thank you so much for being here with us today. Really appreciate it.

Thomas Birkland 22:39
Thank you very much.

Emilia Rivadeneira 22:56
Here with me today is Whitney Ross Manzo, associate professor of political science at Meredith College. Thank you so much for being here today, Whitney, how are you doing?

Whitney Ross Manzo 22:59
I'm doing great. Thank you so much for inviting me.

Emilia Rivadeneira 23:09
Yeah, for sure. And so before we dive in, I kind of wanted to hear your thoughts on the vice presidential debate that happened yesterday, October 1, just general reactions.

Whitney Ross Manzo 23:24
Yeah, so I think that both candidates appeared kind of how they've been on the election trail, where JD Vance has a lot of polish and he comes across really well in kind of sound bite languages and phrases that are really easy to use later on TV shows and clips with, you know, good lines. Tim Walz has less of that practice. He was a, you know, a school teacher, and so it's, it's a lot less formal and polished of a presentation. He's still used to talking to people, but it's just not the same. So, and then he was a little bit awkward in the in the debate. I think that he performed fine and he got his feet under him, especially as the debate went on. But you could see some of the differences there in their training, in terms of just how they approach the debate overall.

Emilia Rivadeneira 24:17
No, yeah, for sure, and any particular moments or statements that kind of like you believe will resonate with voters moving forward the elections?

Whitney Ross Manzo 24:29
Oh, well. I do think one of the the more problematic side conversations was when JD Vance was talking about women going back to work right after having a baby. I'm not sure that many women would agree with that statement, but it's unfortunately, just another statement that JD made, JD Vance has made in this realm of women and mothering and abortions that a lot of people are paying attention to, particularly after the Dobbs decision was handed down in 2022. Abortion is going to be a big topic, and birth control and and just reproductive rights of women are going to be a very big topic in this election season. And so I think that that statement is going to come back to haunt him.

Emilia Rivadeneira 25:13
No, yeah, for sure. And I actually wanted to touch on that, to touch on abortion being just kind of like a pivotal just issue right now at the elections, and highlight, a highlight of the debate was also when wolves criticize Trump's and bans like stands on, like, how states should determine, like, determine access to abortion, and then, kind of like defending Trump's stance and all that. So why do you think abortion is kind of a pivotal issue or or even a controversial issue in this election cycle?

Whitney Ross Manzo 25:52
Part of the reason why abortion is going to be such a big issue in this election is it's the first presidential election since the release of the Dobbs decision in 2022. We have had a midterm election that fall, and we saw people reacting to the Dobbs decision in that election by turning down any constitutional amendments that were going to codify that fetal personhood, for example, or any amendments that were going to restrict abortion rights, those have all been voted down by the people, and a lot of very pro, the Dobbs decision candidates lost. And so we have seen some effects of that, of that 2022, Dobbs decision in lower places like the states and in Congress, but we haven't had a presidential election about this topic yet, so that's part of why it's going to be so big. Another part is because women are still kind of shocked at how things are going with reproductive rights in the United States. Many women, particularly Gen Z women, didn't realize that these things weren't already in law, and that, in fact, it would just take one Supreme Court decision to undo all of that. And so I think that that's part of why, particularly Gen Z voters, Gen Z women voters, are very, very passionate about this issue and want to turn out because of it.

Emilia Rivadeneira 27:19
No, yeah, for sure, and I wanted to touch on that specifically, considering that in the nearly two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe V. Wade, abortion access has been kind of in a flux in just like all of the states and so specifically North Carolina, with what you were saying about the Dobbs decision, like, how is that looking here in North Carolina, abortion rights and all of that, and how can that impact the election, specifically here in the state?

Whitney Ross Manzo 27:54
Yeah, so, following the Dobbs decision, North Carolina passed a law that would heavily restrict abortions past 12 weeks. And so up until 12 weeks, it would be kind of like what it was before, but after 12 weeks, it would be a lot harder. And there were a couple of exceptions written into the bill, but that that was 12 weeks is the North Carolina rule, and that actually is on the higher end. A lot of southern states have done more, like eight weeks or six weeks. And at six weeks, many women don't even know they're pregnant yet. So oftentimes those are are too early. Usually by 12 weeks, women know that they're pregnant, not always, but but most of the time. And so that's the state of the law. Now Governor Cooper tried to veto that law, but the general assembly overrode his veto, so that became the law in the state. One gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson, has said in the past a lot of different things on this issue. So he said he's going to completely ban abortion in the state. He has said that he will follow the current law at 12 weeks. He's also said that he'll push for it to go lower to six weeks. So I'm not really sure what Robinson's true position on this issue is, which is a problem for his candidacy. The other candidate, Josh Stein, who's running under the Democratic ticket, he is, he's the Attorney General under Cooper, and they have very similar views on this issue, and Stein has talked a lot about trying to roll back that 12 week law. So that will become a very big talking point. It already is in our our own gubernatorial election, and it looks like those that wishy washyness that Robinson is exhibiting is going to hurt his candidacy. He's consistently in 10 to 12 points, polling lower than Stein is, and a large part of that is going to be because of how he seems like he can't come to an answer on abortion and he said all kinds of things. Part of it will also be because of the news that was released about that CNN released about his activities on forums a long time ago that also is not helping his candidacy.

Emilia Rivadeneira 30:13
Yeah, and looking forward, you know, you mentioned something. How like the wishy washyness of just, like knowing candidates, like just position or like policies regarding like this specific issue, like abortion specifically here in this in the state, but how the outcome of this presidential election can impact what happens regarding abortion in the state

Whitney Ross Manzo 30:42
Well, so it will actually the outcome of the election, at least for our abortion law will matter more in terms of which Governor candidate we elect and what we do with the General Assembly. So with the, will the General Assembly remain in a Republican majority or a super majority, or will the Democrats win some seats back? That's really the presidential election. Part doesn't really impact us as much, except for the fact that because everyone's talking about abortion at the national level, that means that we talk about it at the state level. But who becomes president doesn't change North Carolina abortion law, who becomes our Governor and who is in the GA that does. And so this is my annual forever encouragement to vote local. Because even though everyone is very excited to vote president, your representative in the General Assembly is going to impact your life a whole lot more. So vote local, y'all.

Emilia Rivadeneira 31:42
And you also briefly mentioned polling, and I really wanted to get into that too as well, kind of like a polling 101 for college students and so just in general, what are public opinion polls and why are they like significant for election cycles in general?

Whitney Ross Manzo 32:05
Sure, so there are all kinds of polls done by all kinds of outfits. So you'll see a lot of news organizations will do polls where they're just asking Americans what they think about everyday issues or candidates, because the news organization wants to report on that right? Like, here's what Americans are thinking about, the the battle between Trump and Harris, and here's what Americans are thinking about, what we should do in Israel and all you know, name an issue. That's what the news organization is doing. It for um, Donald Trump's team, Kamala Harris's team, they'll have their own pollsters too, and they're out there polling on like, is this working or is it not working? Should she wear blue or should she wear red? Is this catchphrase gonna catch on, or is it not and that's what they're pulling on. And then, of course, they're also constantly pulling that like, how are we doing against the other candidate? I work at the Meredith poll, which is an academic polling organization, and we're just out there for knowledge. So our poll in particular is very interested in women's issues, because we are at a historically women's college. So we're asking about how people view women candidates, and do they trust women candidates at the same level as they trust male candidates, that kind of thing. And so all of those different polling organizations are all polling for different reasons, and so you just have to be aware of that when you're consuming that information, right? So if I'm looking at a poll result from the Trump campaign, I'm going to trust it a lot less than a poll result from a news organization or an academic organization, because the Trump campaign has a agenda. They're trying to push right and they're pulling trying to get complimentary results to them and harmful results to their opponent. But if ABC News says we found this in a poll like, Okay, now I'll listen, because I don't know that you are trying to be biased to let anybody win. Necessarily, you're trying to report the news and similarly, like, if the Meredith poll does that, or Elon, they have a poll. High Point has a poll. Those are academic ones, and I trust them too, because they're not trying to sway the race in any one way or another. They're just trying to understand what's going to happen, and that's what all of this polling is for. We're trying to forecast who will win in 2024 the presidency is usually the high profile one everyone wants to know. In North Carolina, we really want to know also who's going to win our governorship, but that's what it is, is everyone's just trying to forecast. And so you gather polls, and if this is something that you're interested in, right like you want to find out who's going to win, get a lot of polls and get an average of them, because any one poll is not going to be 100% correct. But if you have 12 polls that are telling you Harris and Trump are tied, then probably they're tied. And that is actually what a lot of polls are finding. So that's that's the purpose of this polling, and that's why it gets so much news in this in this time, is because everybody wants to be the one who called it first. I said Trump was going to win way back in October or whatever?

Emilia Rivadeneira 35:22
No, yeah for sure. And talking more about Meredith poll, you said that it's an academic polling system, and you know, it's focused on women's issues. And so I was wondering how, what are the polls saying specifically about, like, this election cycle having Kamala Harris, you know, as a as a candidate for the presidency.

What, like, what

are the trends, or what are are the polls saying?

Whitney Ross Manzo 35:56
Yeah, so we've actually found that Kamala Harris's approval rating has gone up since she was nominated as the candidate. Previously, we were finding her in the low 40s alongside Joe Biden in terms of approvability. But since she was named the candidate, and since the the Democratic Convention happened, she's been riding a wave of kind of positive news coverage. And so we found that in the Meredith poll, our most recent poll, we found that her approval rating has gone up. It's still not, you know, amazing. It's still like barely 50% but it's more than it was. So that has been one thing that we found we did also ask questions about if people thought that the parties were doing good at representing regular Americans, and which party you know, governs in a more ethical and honest way? Do Americans think we need a third party? And on those questions, we consistently, we've asked that many, many times, and we consistently find that Americans are kind of fed up with both the Democratic and Republican parties, and they would like to see a third party come forward that would be more representative of the middle.

Emilia Rivadeneira 37:13
Wow, that's, that's really interesting actually to hear, and it's an interesting find. And specifically touching on, like, we were talking about abortion rights. Are there, like, any polls that Meredith has, like, conducted, and, you know, like, have they find anything related to, like, what are the people saying about abortion rights in the state, like in North Carolina in the polls?

Whitney Ross Manzo 37:38
Yeah, actually, on our most recent poll, we asked about abortion because of what we were saying earlier, right? Like, it's going to be a huge factor in this election. And one thing that we did this time to change it up was we didn't just ask, like, What's your opinion of the North Carolina law. We asked how important the issue was compared to the issue of the economy. So traditionally in polling, when we ask people what's the most important issue for you, and we let them say whatever they want, 70% of the people answering are going to say the economy right and how much money they feel like they have. How do they feel like they can still buy groceries and gas at the same price as that kind of thing? That's That's what 70% of people are going to say but we have been hearing all this stuff about how abortion is going to decide this election, and we wanted to test that. So we asked people, is the issue of abortion more, less, or equal to importance as the economy? And on abortion, funnily enough, we found a strong percentage of North Carolinians thought that abortion was as important as the economy. And in fact, Democratic voters, younger voters and women voters, said that it was much more important than the economy. So the groups that you would expect would be very passionate about this issue, are very passionate about this issue, but abortion, we also asked about immigration, and we asked about the Israel Palestine war, and abortion was the one that had the highest number of percent, people saying that it was as important or more important than the economy.

Emilia Rivadeneira 39:14
Really, wow, that is interesting. Um, well, what can polling say about all of this? It's just like, interesting to me. Like, what can we, like, discover in by doing, like, all of this polling, exactly,

Whitney Ross Manzo 39:30
And we sometimes put fun stuff in there too. Like, I had seen a meme on Facebook that was talking about how the grocery store of North Carolina is Harris Teeter. And I was like, I don't think that's the grocery store of North Carolina. I think it's Food Lion. So we, I took that to like my friends, and we were talking about it, and we were divided. We were like, No, it's Food Lion. No, it's Harris Teeter. And so we put the question on the poll, and we just asked people like, hey. North Carolina, because we only asked North Carolinians. We were like, hey, what's the, what's the grocery store of North Carolina? And the people said, Food Lion.

Emilia Rivadeneira 40:08
Oh, my God, yes.

Whitney Ross Manzo 40:10
I was right.

Emilia Rivadeneira 40:11
I mean, it is no Trader Joe's, though, some of the stuff in Trader Joe's is really good, but definitely Food Lion. Food Lion,

Whitney Ross Manzo 40:19
Right, well, Trader Joe's is not the, you know, it might be your preferred grocery store, but it's not North Carolina's grocery store, right? Food Lion is homegrown.

Emilia Rivadeneira 40:28
Exactly, exactly.

Whitney Ross Manzo 40:29
So, yeah, you can ask about anything.

Emilia Rivadeneira 40:32
That is really funny, um, but yeah, also like talking about pulling due to, like, errors, for example, in like the 2016 and 2020, elections, many Americans, like remain kind of like skepticals that polls can paint an accurate description of, just like the public's political perception on or perspectives. So what are your thoughts on this? Like, what just general thoughts,

Whitney Ross Manzo 41:02
Yeah, so. this is where the weirdness of our election system comes into play. We vote for the president, but we're not directly voting for the President, right? We're voting for electors who will then go to the Electoral College and cast our state's vote for president, and we're in North Carolina, so our our votes are winner take all. And what that means is is, even if the divide is 51-49 for Trump, all of our electoral college votes go to Trump. harris gets none, even though she had almost half of the actual people's votes. What that means is, is that the Electoral College skews the vote, and so the polling actually was correct in 2016 and 2020. The problem is, is the electoral college then ignores all of those people who are in winner take all states that voted for the win that didn't win, right? So all 49% of North Carolinians who voted for Harris are not represented in the Electoral College, right? And so the polling is asking people, who are you voting for? But the result comes from the Electoral College, and so that that's what creates that mismatch. So you just have to look at then take the polls, what are they saying in each state, and plug them in to the 50 states, and then use your forecasting to see who will win the presidency. But it's not as simple as, like, okay, the polls are saying that Donald Trump is going to win by two points. He might win by two points, but it might be Harris who wins, because the Electoral College has shifted the vote. Does that make sense?

Emilia Rivadeneira 42:52
Kind of Yes. What you said about the Electoral College. Like, I like, that makes sense. Like, a lot of sense to me, about, like, how can we interpret that as, like, the people, like, if you can, like, expand on that. Like, how can we see, like, you were saying, like, specifically, like states like, winner take all states. Like, if you can expand on that.

Whitney Ross Manzo 43:18
Yeah, so 48 of our 50 states are winner take all states, and we're one of them. There are two states that do divide the votes proportionally. So if the state goes 51-49 then they divide their electoral college votes 51-49 but only two states do that, the other 48 do winner take all and so the polling, what it's telling us, really is the popular college answer, and in 2016 polling was telling us Hillary would win. And who won the popular vote? Hillary.

Emilia Rivadeneira 43:50
Right.

Whitney Ross Manzo 43:50
And so she didn't win, because of the weirdness of the Electoral College.

Emilia Rivadeneira 43:55
Right.

Whitney Ross Manzo 43:55
Where some certain states went for Trump, and that meant he won, even though the popular vote was for Hillary Clinton, that's what I mean about how like the it matches. But then the Electoral College throws kind of a wrench in it, and so please don't lose your trust in polls. It's more that we have a wonky system that takes our voters actual desires and then filters them, which is why some people think that we should get rid of the Electoral College.

Emilia Rivadeneira 44:28
And just like in, for example, is there, like, a way or, like, you know, people that are working in polls and all of this stuff, like, have they thought of a way to just kind of, like, make it not make it more accurate, because I understand what you're saying about, like, how it changes once the electoral, like college like decision all that, like, it's capturing, like public perceptions. Like, I understand that. But you know, like, is there. A way to kind of like, see what the result of like is going to be like. You know, I don't really know how to frame this question.

Whitney Ross Manzo 45:09
Oh, well. So the way that you would try to forecast who will really win is by taking the polling in each state and saying, okay, in North Carolina, they are tied, and that's what the Meredith poll found. We have Trump and Harris even at 48 each.

Emilia Rivadeneira 45:27
Yeah.

Whitney Ross Manzo 45:28
Um, we can't determine which way our electoral college votes will go, because it's, it's tied, but in Texas, we're pretty confident Trump's going to win, and in California, we're pretty confident Harris is going to win. And so this is where you see, like the website is 270 to win, because you have to have 270 votes in the Electoral College to be named president. You would you they are constantly keeping a map that they're updating using polling numbers of like, we think California is going to go blue, we think Texas is going to go red, but this state, Ohio, we're not sure, is leaning Republican, and so they are constantly updating their map, and that's where I would go if I wanted to know, like, what's the current information on who will win the presidency? Because they've taken all of the state polls and put them together to make that map that follows the electoral college.

Emilia Rivadeneira 46:24
Yeah, that makes sense. But yeah,

Whitney Ross Manzo 46:28
So, 270toWin.com is where you need to go.

Emilia Rivadeneira 46:32
Yeah.

Whitney Ross Manzo 46:32
I promise I'm not being paid by them.

Emilia Rivadeneira 46:37
And also, there's, as you mentioned in the beginning, there's like different polls, like public opinion polls and all that. I know there's also, like the term exit polls. Can you explain kind of, like, the difference between, you know, the public opinion polls and exit polls as well?

Whitney Ross Manzo 46:56
Yeah, so public opinion polls are going to be done before an election, and they're actually done in all kinds of industries, not just in political science. Marketing firms use a lot of public opinion polling where they'll ask people like, what's your perception of five different fast food restaurants to try to determine, like, do people prefer Burger King to Wendy's or whatever? So that's all public opinion polling too, and that that's more in the marketing realm. But exit polls are a special subset of election polls where they're done as people are leaving the electoral site. So they catch people after they have just voted, and they ask them to be like, who did you vote for? Because they're going to try to forecast who's going to win the election that night, with the idea that this is going to be the most accurate poll we have, right because we're just asking them, right as they walked out, who did he vote for? Exactly. And if they're honest saying who they voted for, you should be able to guess like, Okay, at this precinct, Trump is doing really well, or Stein is doing really well, or vice versa. So that's the purpose of exit polls. A lot of news organizations, especially and campaigns, do them to try to guess what the outcome that night will be with. Again, the goal everybody wants to be the first one who can claim like I knew it at this time.

Emilia Rivadeneira 48:21
Right, yeah. And going back to kind of like, you know, Meredith College and the Polling Center and how it focuses on women's issues, I wanted to ask you, how can polling can help just highlight the issues that resonate specifically to women, like with women?

Whitney Ross Manzo 48:42
Yeah. Well, one way that we do that is we ask students to write questions for us. So Meredith College students are allowed to write questions that we then put on the poll, and then there they get that data, and they can use it for like a research project or for their senior thesis or something. And so we've asked questions about stuff that the students have directed for us. So we even asked a question about Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift last year, yeah, which is not a women's issue, but to show you, like the students really do, they really do, get to say one issue that we have asked about in the past is like inequality, because students are really interested in hearing about the ways that women experience inequality. We've asked about like the let me think of abortion is a really big one, obviously, but also education and funding for education. And so what we try to do is talk about the topics that other polls aren't covering. And this is why we want to elect women into office, right when it's not women in the room, concerns that matter to women aren't going to be talked about. And similarly, when you don't have women's issues as the focus of your poll, you're not going to ask questions that matter to women, and so we're just trying to ask those questions that other polls aren't asking, like, what do you think about women candidates? Or, what do you think about women in business? Do you trust a woman business leader? What about we also, one time, did a whole series on the pay gap and how, how women experience the pay gap in different fields.

Emilia Rivadeneira 50:23
Oh, yeah, that's super interesting. And I like that, how it's just, you know, students also like giving those questions and all that like, it shows kind of like the range of, like, the topics that, like, you know, being we can-

Whitney Ross Manzo 50:39
Oh, yeah, absolutely. And anyone is welcome to email us and ask, you know, for a topic, if you've got something that you want to ask about, some burning questions you really want to know,

Emilia Rivadeneira 50:48
Yeah, for sure. Um, and just like in general, like we have, like mentioned, you know, from like abortion and like polling and, you know, like the vice presidential debate, but from your perspective, you know, looking ahead to the elections, we're kind of super close. What are other kind of significant, just political events or developments that kind of kind of have, like an influence on the upcoming election?

Whitney Ross Manzo 51:20
Well, I think one big event that will have an impact that we haven't even fully comprehended yet is Hurricane Helene, and the impacts that that's going to have in western North Carolina. You know, roads are washed out and buildings are underwater. Are these people going to have the ability to vote in this election? And if they do, are they going to have early voting opportunities, or is anyone even thinking about voting when your house is underwater and, and what that means in is that it could depress turnout in western North Carolina, which then has impacts on who ends up winning the governorship and who ends up voting, winning the presidency and winning our electoral college votes. So I think that the impacts the law, ongoing impacts of hurricane Helene, we still don't know what that will be, but at a minimum, I imagine voting will be more challenging for Western North Carolinians, and that's it like on top of that, if there's not a strong governmental response that could look negatively on Cooper and Harris, by extension of Biden, if there's a really awesome government response and people are on the ground looking like they're doing good work, maybe that helps Harris and Stein so that that whole how that's going to shake out. I'm not sure at this moment, but I do. I can't imagine that it's going to be easy for Western North Carolinians to vote in this election. And that's that's really sad, because, you know, all all people deserve their voice in the election. So I think that that one is a big one. But the other thing is, is, it's called the October surprise for a reason. So, like in political science, in campaign, you know, lore, they talk about the October surprise, and it's the thing that comes out of nowhere that ends up deciding the November, you know, early November election. And we just started October. So some people say that the October surprise was actually in September when we found out all that stuff about Mark Robinson's internet activities. But it could be something else. Who knows. So it never trust anyone who is confident before election day, I know who's going to win, because all number of things can happen between now and the date of the election that could really swing one way or the other?

Emilia Rivadeneira 53:45
No, yeah, for sure. And specifically, it's really interesting that you mentioned hurricane, the impact of Hurricane Helene. Like, naughty. I wasn't thinking about it. And like, I can definitely see, like, how can that affect voter turnout? And it's really sad as well, but yeah. So thank you so much for joining us today. And is there anything else you would like to add?

Whitney Ross Manzo 54:13
I'll just go back to my catchphrase, which is "vote local y'all". So make sure you turn out. Make sure that you flip all like, it's okay to be kind of disgusted by the Democratic and Republican parties and think I don't really like Harris or Trump, that's fine. Flip the ballot and vote for the local races, because those are the ones that are really going to impact your life. Yeah.

Emilia Rivadeneira 54:36
But yeah, thank you so much for,

Whitney Ross Manzo 54:38
Thank you for having me.

Emilia Rivadeneira 54:39
Here today on Eye on the Triangle. Yeah. Thank you.

Whitney Ross Manzo 54:43
Thank you, Emilia.

Emilia Rivadeneira 54:49
This has been your host. Emilia Rivadeneira, thanks for listening to Eye on the triangle for back episodes of the show. Go to wknc.org/podcasts music in today's episode is Krakatoa by Noah Stark, licensed under Creative Commons.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai