Eye on the Triangle

Emilia Rivadeneira 0:00
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Good morning everyone. Hope you're enjoying your day. My name is Emilia Riva genera, host of eye on the triangle. And with further ado, let's get into some news. You

the following interview was recorded before the ballot delivery was set on pause. According to the Carolina public press, NC, absentee ballots were supposed to begin going out on September 6, 2024 But Kurt has delayed them while presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr's name is removed.

Hello and welcome to wknc. Eye on the triangle, your source of local news, where we dive deep into the pressing issues affecting our communities. I'm your host, Emilia Rio genera, and here with us today is Chris Cooper, Robert Lee Madison, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs and director of the hare Institute for Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University. Thank you so much for being here with us today. Chris, how are you doing?

Chris Cooper 1:43
I'm doing great. Thanks so much for having me. Yeah, for sure.

Emilia Rivadeneira 1:48
So in our previous program of you know, the first kind of episode of politics unpacked, which is this eye on the triangle's new coverage of election season, we kind of look back at the summer events to kind of get up to speed of what's going on. But today I really wanted to dig into specific issues that could influence the election results here in North Carolina, specifically, kind of break down some key topics and see how they might impact our state's political landscape now that we're like, you know, super close to elections as well. So I actually kind of wanted to talk first about an article that you published for the London School of Economics daily blog. And it was about like aligning the potential outlook for the upcoming elections in North Carolina, and it was noting that the state was denominated as purple. But back then, in May, when this was published, you know, things were like super different. It was Joe Biden who was in the race, and now it's Kelly Harris. So I wanted to ask you, how have these changes impacted the electoral landscape in North Carolina, and does the state continue to be viewed as a purple state?

Chris Cooper 3:09
Yeah, no, it's great, great question. Yeah, it's been a sea change, right? We've seen so many different things. There's been an assassination attempt. We had a changeover at the top of the Democratic ticket, which had a trickle down, effect, of course, of having a new vice presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket. So a whole lot happened. So what's been the effect of that? I think the effect of that, pretty clearly, from the polling, has been to tighten this race, right? So my conclusion back in May was that we are a purple state. I've got a book coming out in a couple of weeks called anatomy of a purple state, sort of making that argument. But boy, it really seems to to be even a darker shade of purple today, right? So almost every poll that's come out recently, so East Carolina, high point, the CN, The New York Times, excuse me, Sienna poll, Cook Political Report, they've all got us right smack in the middle of that margin of air, yeah, yeah. But if we think about what's happened with since since Harris, we got tighten polls, we have an increasing number of new registrants, new voter registrations that are coming from the Democrats. We're used to seeing more Republicans. We're seeing more Democrats, and we're also seeing some massive fundraising numbers come out of the Harris campaign. So we'll see if they can translate that into votes, right? Your vote doesn't count twice if you're, like, super pumped to cast it, but, but it does seem like they're doing a good job thus far, translating cyber into something that's more meaningful. Oh,

Emilia Rivadeneira 4:32
yeah, for sure. And you mentioned, yeah, like, democratic voter registration has kind of increased. And so I also wanted to ask, Has there been any like Harris effect I've seen like everywhere in the media, you know, after Harris, does Harris Kansas City influence? And just like, you know, Democrats wanting to register to vote?

Chris Cooper 4:56
Yeah, absolutely. So fortunately for us, you. North Carolina, the voter registration data are really easy to track anybody can. And what we see is that in most of the previous weeks, before the big switch from from Biden Harris, the Republicans would beat the Democrats in new voter registrations. This is not total registrations now, this is new voter registrations. Unaffiliated, of course, beats both of them, but that's a different conversation. So right after the big switch, that trend flipped, where it became the Democrats, not the Republicans, who are registering slightly more voters every week. And so I think what that means is that, yes, we've been able to translate the Democratic Party's been able to translate that excitement into something more measurable, into these new voters, we'll see whether they actually show up and cast that vote and get off the couch or just register. And we'll also see what happens with that large number of unaffiliated voters, which beats the Democrats and the Republicans right for

Emilia Rivadeneira 5:53
sure, and kind of going back to that denomination of purple state, a lot of reports online have mentioned that this race specifically has been one of, like, classified, of, like, the hardest ones to just, like, know, like, in specifically North Carolina, who's like, on top, like, who's, you know, winning and so, like, Is it would it still be considered North Carolina a purple state or not?

Chris Cooper 6:28
Yeah. I mean to me, to be a purple state, you don't necessarily need to be a swing state, right? So purple means you're, you're kind of close to the middle, right? You're between red and blue. And so if we look at the last election 2020, is just a line in the sand. Yes, we were, of course, colored red on the map. All of our electoral college votes went to the Republican candidate for president, Donald Trump. But of all the states that Donald Trump won, his margin was the smallest in North Carolina of any of them, right? So we were just on the right side, the Republican side of that razor's edge. And I think that's really why I think we're best described, not so much as a swing state, because we haven't gone for a Democrat since 2008 but that we are very much a purple state,

Emilia Rivadeneira 7:08
right? And what factors, like, besides Harris candidacy now have, like influence, influenced in this, like competitiveness, you know, here in North Carolina,

Chris Cooper 7:21
yeah, so, I mean, we can look down the ballot, right? So currently, our congressional delegation is seven Democrats and seven Republicans. It doesn't get any more purple than that. Now we're going to see a very different delegation come this fall, thanks to some more redistricting. Some might call gerrymandering. Some would just call redistricting. I think we can just say for today that the lines have changed, and because the lines have changed, the delegation is going to change. But we've also seen, of course, we have a Democratic governor today, Roy Cooper, no relation, and then got also a democratic Secretary of State, a democratic state auditor and a Democratic Attorney General. Those may not be at the tip of your tongue, but these are statewide offices where people of elected Democrats and so again, I think these are all kind of put it together. It certainly doesn't lead to the conclusion that we're a blue state. No one would argue that with a straight face, but that we are better described as purple than we are as red,

Emilia Rivadeneira 8:17
right? Yeah. And talking about specific issues. What statewide issues would you say are currently kind of dominating the conversation around the elections here in North Carolina? Sure, yeah,

Chris Cooper 8:32
like, there's an old line that a guy named James Carville, who's a demo is a Democratic strategist. At that point, was a Democratic strategist more active with the Clinton campaign. He said that it's the economy, stupid. In other words, it's always about the economy. I think he said that in 1992 and in 2024 that's still correct. I mean, that is the number one issue, and that is an issue that I see as being about framing right? There are things you can point to to say the economy is going well. There are things you can point to and say the economy's going poorly, and each party is going to try to use that to their advantage, right? So that's kind of a framing effect, if you will. Then there is the, what I call the agenda setting issues. So the Democratic Party wants this very much to be an election about abortion rights, and the Republican Party wants this very much to be an election about the border. And so the fight there is less about framing, and more about which issues are the ones that voters use to make a decision. Again, with each party kind of making the opposite argument

Emilia Rivadeneira 9:29
right, and in relating to those issues, abortion specifically, and like the border as well, you mentioned, how is each candidate like doing well in North Carolina with just like those issues, specifically, because, you know, a lot of people are conservative, and, like, you know, abortion rights is huge now, nowadays it's a topic of debate. So are they doing well with just like, you know, handling those issues here in North Carolina?

Chris Cooper 9:58
Yeah. I mean, I think. Think that again, these issues abortion and the border, those are ones where people tend to favor opposite parties, so people do tend to be closer, on average, to the Democratic position on abortion rights. Yes, there, of course, there are many conservatives in the state who think abortion should be completely legal, but they are in the minority compared to the people that are closer to the Democratic position on the border, I think we're seeing, again, the opposite. I think more people polls would show are closer to the Republican position on the border, fairly or unfairly than the Democratic position. So that's why I think those are really more about about agenda setting than they are about persuasion. It's about which one are people using top of mind to make their decision at the ballot box again, with the economy kind of being number one, right?

Emilia Rivadeneira 10:48
Yeah, um, and would you say this issues or, like the candidate, like policies surrounding this issues and specifically the economy, since it's like, you know, top of our minds now, um, would affect their chances of winning? Yeah, absolutely,

Chris Cooper 11:02
yes. I think sort of not just the reality of the economy, but perceptions of the economy. And I think we need to be clear on that, right. Sometimes I see people getting into fights about, you know, which metric to use, or whether the economy is really going well or not. And of course, that's important. But in terms of the electoral dynamics. The key is, how do we perceive these things happening? And so somebody can say all they want that you know, inflation is going down over the last few months, but if you still go to the grocery store and it feels like you know a lot for milk, then it doesn't really matter what statistics somebody lays at you.

Emilia Rivadeneira 11:41
No, yeah, for sure. And besides just talking about statewide issues, I wanted to ask you, what other factors might impact voter turnout here in North Carolina, just in general,

Chris Cooper 11:54
yeah. I mean, part of it is what the parties do themselves, right? So it's about party mobilization. The Democratic Party has not done as good of a job as the Republican Party in the last few years of just getting their voters out to vote. So the last year, the Democratic turnout matched Republican turnout was 2008 not coincidentally, 2008 is the last time that North Carolina went for a Democrat for president. So I think it's partly about party effort, about party mobilization, about voter contact, and that's what both parties are trying to do right now.

Emilia Rivadeneira 12:27
Yeah. And how could, um, you know, increase participant participation from, like, certain groups that, for example, did not want to cast a ballot back then? Um, would change the results of this election in general? Yeah,

Chris Cooper 12:42
so absolutely. So, you know, in some ways, this election is going to be about the people who might or might not get off the couch, more so than it is people who listen to programs like this, right? If you listen to a program like this, you probably already have your mind made up. That's important. It's, it's, it's absolutely critical to our democracy. So No way am I saying, you know, minimizing it. But in terms of the electoral outcome, the key is more about who gets off the couch, who doesn't get off the couch. Previously, we used to think that non voters were more likely to be Democrats. What we see with Trump is these kind of irregular voters actually lean a little bit more heavily towards Trump. The good news from that takeaway is that wanting higher voter turnout isn't really a partisan outcome. It is just better for democracy period. So whether you lean right or whether you lean left, I think one thing we should be able to agree on is we need people to show up and vote. Yeah,

Emilia Rivadeneira 13:37
for sure. And now with you know, like talking about ballots and stuff. The mailing ballots are actually going out tomorrow, Friday, September 6. And so North Carolina is among the first states to send out those mailing ballots. And how does that influence voter turnout? Yeah, absolutely.

Chris Cooper 13:57
Actually, we are the first state in the country. So there's a right. We're in a fight with Ohio, which one is really first in flight. The one thing we could agree on is we're first in mail ballot. That's a brag point or not, you can decide, yeah, we are sending them out on Friday. So if you have requests in a mail ballot, and in North Carolina, you can request one with no excuse. Unlike many states and that's going to go out on Friday, we're going to get ballots back probably as early as Saturday. So what does that mean? You know, in the 2020 election, mail ballots were almost one in every five ballots cast. But of course, the 2020 election was marked by the worst of the covid crisis, right? I think we're going to see certainly fewer than 5% of ballots cast by mail this time. I think for Democrats, it's an opportunity to try to maximize the bang that they're getting from this enthusiasm buck that's happening right now, so getting folks to go out before the enthusiasm wanes, but the Republicans are also trying to get this mail back. Balloting turnouts or effect. So in the past, it used to be that Republicans use Mail balloting more than Democrats. That flipped after Donald Trump said, Hey, Republicans don't use Mail balloting. So Republicans listen and Democrats listen by doing the opposite. And now there's a Republican movement called bank your vote, and they're saying, hey, Republicans, you can use Mail balloting too, and you can use early voting too. Let's go ahead and bank our ballots as well as the Democrats. And so what I'm hoping is that we see a lot of people use these early and mail voting options, but that we don't see as big of a partisan gap as we have in the past,

Emilia Rivadeneira 15:35
right? So they're changing kind of the narrative now I see exactly it's interesting. So talking more about national kind of level issues, well, candidates have picked already their vice presidents their ticket. So I wanted to ask you, what does each vice president candidate bring to each ticket?

Chris Cooper 15:59
Yeah, it's a great question. So the in the past, the evidence suggests that vice presidential candidates rarely, if ever, make a big electoral difference. It doesn't mean that's not an important selection, but the direct effect is pretty minimal. The one big, bright exception to that rule was Sarah Palin, and that was in a negative direction. The evidence suggests that actually was a drag on McCain's campaign. With that said, it's the first major decision that most candidates make. And so the indirect effects, as a couple of political scientists have argued, may actually be real. It may actually be important here. I think we're seeing that the JD Vance pick has not gone over quite as well, that a lot of people are using that as evidence of decision making. That didn't go so well. There's been a lot of past statements that are being brought up. Probably while we're having this conversation, there's two more being revealed on Twitter walls. I think it's it's tended to go a little bit better thus far. Now whether things change remains to be seen, but at least thus far, that seems to have been a safer pick. I don't think, I mean, certainly there are people from the right they're hitting on him, but he doesn't appear to be turning anybody away from the Democratic ticket, and he doesn't appear to be reinforcing some of the more negative stereotypes of Democrats. Whereas JD Vance some of these comments in particular about women, some folks are arguing that that may be true, so I don't think either one's going to have a huge effect. I think thus far, walls has been a safer pick, but we've also got a couple of months till this thing is done, right?

Emilia Rivadeneira 17:33
Yeah, there's a lot to just like, kind of see how it goes. But from your perspective, I wanted to ask you, what are other significant kind of national level political event, events or developments or issues that we should be on the lookout, you know, for that that might influence the upcoming elections, and specifically here as well in North Carolina? Yeah,

Chris Cooper 17:57
absolutely. So actually, this morning, so we're talking just before 9am on Thursday September 5, and at 930 in the morning on Thursday September 5, Junior is going to be in court, and he is trying to get off the ballot in North Carolina. This is really interesting. He fought really hard to get on the ballot. He's trying to get off the ballot. Oh, yeah, and by the way, at the same time he's trying to get on the ballot in New York. And so if you're confused, I don't blame you. It's a confusing thing. But I think the logic is he is trying to get off the ballots in the purple states and the battleground states where he can make the difference, because he'd prefer to see Trump than Harris, but in a state like New York that's going to vote for the Democratic candidate, whether it's, you know, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, or Mickey Mouse, or state like Oklahoma, where it's going to vote for the Republican candidate again, no matter who it is. He says, Well, I like to stay on the ballot in those states, to kind of stay in the mix. And so that, I mean, that could be a difference maker, especially in a state like North Carolina where the margins are tiny. State like Arizona Georgia, where the margins are? You know, fewer than 12,000 votes in the 2020 that's a key thing to watch, and it's happening right now. Yeah, um,

Emilia Rivadeneira 19:09
and that's really interesting, like, I heard about it, but, like, I was really confused, as you said, it's just, like, a confusing situation, how he wants to, just, like, change it. But, yeah, that's an another um day conversation, but just in general, also, like, kind of expanding into national issues. I know we talk about abortion and the border as well. On the national level, do you see those two issues kind of like having an impact, just in general, and like this elections, just not in North Carolina, but just like national level.

Chris Cooper 19:46
Yes, absolutely, you know, I think the issues that we see in North Carolina are very much national issues, right? We've seen this big nationalization of all politics. We used to say all politics is local. Today, really, all politics is national. So, yes, I think. Abortion, the border, the economy, those three issues you're going to hear about in North Carolina, you can hear about them in North Dakota. You're about in California. You're going to hear about them in Delaware. So it's going to be throughout the country. I think those are going to be the big three of this election. Yeah.

Emilia Rivadeneira 20:16
Well, this has been a very insightful interview. Thank you so much for joining us today. Is there anything else you would like to add?

Chris Cooper 20:24
No, I think just that. I mean, it's pretty amazing times that we're living through, and so I hope folks are able to take some time to pay attention and to remember too that there's a whole lot going on down ballot. We have 10 council of state races. The governor is only one of those that's up this year. We have 170 state legislative seats open. We've got, you know, hundreds and hundreds, if not 1000s, of city council, county commission seats up. So there's a lot going on. It's easy to get completely taken with the top of the ticket. I know I do sometimes, but pay attention to what's going on down farther. There's some really important races there.

Emilia Rivadeneira 21:00
Yeah for sure.

Next on the program, we have another interview with a political analyst talking about elections. I'm your host, Emilia rivener, and here with us today is a very special guest, Michael Bitzer, Leonard, Chair of Political Science and professor of politics and history at katawa College. Thank you so much for being here today. Michael, how are you doing?

Michael Bitzer 21:30
I'm doing well, it's great to be with you.

Emilia Rivadeneira 21:32
Yeah. Thank you. So in our last program, we kind of kicked off this new segment called politics unpacked, in which we're going to kind of dive deep into election matters. And today, I kind of wanted to explore additional specific issues that might influence election outcomes in North Carolina, as well as kind of recent developments that have been like happening recently regarding the elections. And one of those being kind of, you know, Trump and Harris are set to face off in their first precedential debate, onto to say. So what can we anticipate from this encounter?

Michael Bitzer 22:17
Boy, that's a great question, because I think for both candidates, they're really going to be viewing this as potentially uncharted territory. You know, they haven't really gone at each other, haven't really interacted with each other. So the first thing, I think, as a political scientist, kind of watching the debate, what, what is the kind of tenor and tone that each of the candidates take. I think we have certainly experienced a number of interactions with Donald Trump, being former president, being now, you know, a multi time, multi time candidate. He's got a very unique and distinctive style that he brings to it. He's very confrontational. I think with the muted microphones, we're going to have to kind of watch and see how that really plays out. But I think from his vantage point, both candidates are going to be focused on their issues, their core policy, you know, advocacy. But I think he really wants to try and get into a challenging battle with Harris. I think for Harris, you know, with her experience as a prosecutor, her experience in the courtroom, her experience and as a US senator and, you know, basically interrogating witnesses from time to time. I think she's going to take a very kind of lawyerly approach to this, but I don't think she's going to back down in any way, shape or form. I mean, if you think back to the debate she had with Mike Pence in 2020 she was very clear. She was not going to let him get the upper hand, to the point where she said, you know, Mr. Vice President, I'm speaking, I think we're going to see that kind of approach. And the question I really have is, is Trump going to be much more negative, much more confrontational, much more attack dog. And does Harris try and deflect some of that, but bring the joy and enthusiasm that she's been trying to convey on the campaign trail. It? You know, these are not really debates as it is more I want to get my talking points across and make the connections to the voters, but we'll see how much give and take the both sides have, yeah,

Emilia Rivadeneira 24:52
for sure, and you mentioned the tone of you know each candidate as well. And. So how the tone or like overall debate performance of each candidate impact their overall campaign strategy?

Michael Bitzer 25:08
Yeah, I think certainly, debates are highly watched nowadays, and for the most part, we think maybe there's some potential impact or effect on the campaign. For the most part, debates kind of come and go, unless there's something consequential. I mean, the first debate was significant in terms of its impact. It ultimately brought Joe Biden out of the race and put Harris into the race. I think you know, what this may have is certainly nationwide attention, because we will see the two of them go against each other, and how do each one of them respond to the other? And I think for the audience, looking so much of what we know about American politics now is that the significant majority of Americans are pretty much locked into their partisan tribalism is very much partisan loyalty, and they'll be rooting for their side and booing the other side. I mean, I think the only you know, probably worst kind of experience is maybe ACC football or basketball in that regard, in terms of the partisan loyalty. But for the few folks that are undecided or that are questioning, can I really support this candidate over that candidate? This may give them the sense of, Hey, I like what he or she was presenting or, Oh no, there's no way I could support her or him. So I think this is, this is a historic debate. It has been a very long time since we've had a former president running for, you know, to be reelected in his own right. This is the first, you know, woman of color to make this bid. We're living in historic times. Yeah,

Emilia Rivadeneira 27:07
for sure. And what if, what are kind of the issues or like topics that we can expect to hear in this debate from each side?

Michael Bitzer 27:17
I think both sides are really going to be focused on their set of issues and not necessarily respond to the other side. So if you think about on the Republican side, what Trump is going to be focused on, economics, particularly inflation. Even though that has been significantly coming down, he's still going to present it as we're in record territory of inflation and things just cost, you know, exorbitant. I think immigration, I think crime, will be among his big issues. I think for Harris and her side, it's almost not necessarily a policy issue as it is. Again, I go back to this idea of tone of, you know, a positive sense of looking at things and acknowledging the challenges, acknowledging the issues of prices are still high. We need middle class support. We need to tackle education cost. You know she is certainly going to hit on reproductive rights and abortion, and I think that that will be critical. I'm curious if she's going to try and attempt to negate any of Trump's issues. For example, immigration. She made it very clear in her acceptance speech for the nomination that if the very bipartisan border bill came back, she would sign it, and that is probably one of the most conservative pieces of legislation on that issue. But does she use that as kind of trying to take away something that Trump could potentially hit her on. That's what I'm going to be interested and fascinated

Emilia Rivadeneira 29:06
to watch. Yeah, and another thing that I wanted to bring up was it appears to be, especially here in North Carolina, this Harris effect of like, voter registration. And so I wanted to ask you, is this true?

Michael Bitzer 29:23
Yes, we have seen a definitive Harris effect, if you look at just this summer, so in June, and this has been the trend line for some time, when people register to vote, they pick one of a multitude of party registrations, and for the vast majority of new voters, they're actually picking unaffiliated. Interestingly enough, among college students Gen Z, generation, 50% are registered unaffiliated. But when you get into the partisan registration. Republicans have been ahead of registered Democrats for some time, up until July 21 when Biden withdrew, when he endorsed Harris, when Harris, you know, said, I am definitely running, we saw the two parties flip, and there was a significant bump up in democratic registration now that has tapered off as we've gotten further in time, but it's been fairly close, and we've seen the kind of Harris effect when it comes to things like voter registration. We've certainly seen it with fundraising. We've seen it with the polling and the dynamics of voter engagement, but voter registration is another key signal of this Harris effect, yeah,

Emilia Rivadeneira 30:49
for sure. And with that, I also wanted to touch about voter turnout. And you know want to explore is voter enthusiasm and turn out like, how is that gonna shape just elections here in North Carolina as well?

Michael Bitzer 31:07
So my basic rule of thumb with North Carolina's electorate, those voters that show up to cast a ballot, it's basically the 97 three rule. 97% of the electorate is baked in for one side or the other. So, you know, imagine 46% Republican, 45% democratic. They are locked in. They're not going anywhere. The three are the swing voters, the persuadable voters, the voters that could vote for Donald Trump in 2020 and then turn around and vote for Roy Cooper for governor, you know, Republican and then Democrat. And in North Carolina, it is literally all about who shows up and the turnout rate. So in 2020 we had 75% of registered voters show up to vote, which was a record for us. But if you look specifically within generational cohorts, for example, you would find that among baby boomers, the old, among the oldest generation, their turnout rate was 86% well above the the statewide turnout of 75 Gen Z down to 61 and right now, if you take voters under the age of 45 So millennials and Gen Z, they're, they're, they're a plurality of the voter pool, they can dominate. But the problem is they don't show up to their political strength, to their political power. Now this year, that might be a change, but you know it matters in terms of turnout, because every generation has a very distinctive political dynamic too. We see it with race. We see it with urban versus rural versus suburban dynamics. You know, it matters who shows up, because then they're conveying their political power along with everybody else in their group,

Emilia Rivadeneira 33:25
right? And what might be those reasons that specifically Gen C, you know that generation does not show up to vote?

Michael Bitzer 33:34
Well, I mean, it's very typical in terms of what we know, younger voters always don't show up and older voters. Do you know the the classic, you know, laugh line that I use in my classes is, do not stand in front of a retirement center on election day, because they will run you over with their wheelchairs. They'll knock you over with their oxygen tanks. They will show up to vote. It's young people that maybe haven't been socialized into understanding politics. They're just getting to be educated about political issues, about voting mechanisms and dynamics. And we think as somebody grows older, their life cycle gets them more involved and engaged. But I think this year, the Harris campaign has recognized what they need to do and who they need to target. And in North Carolina, it's particularly black voters in central cities and in rural counties, and it's people under the age of 45 right?

Emilia Rivadeneira 34:42
And that was another question that I was going to ask is, you know, are black North Carolinian voters now motivated as well to go to vote?

Michael Bitzer 34:53
Yeah, that's going to be, I think, one of the fascinating questions we as political scientists are trying to figure out, you know, in. Oh eight, when Barack Obama made the historic candidacy that he had, what we saw that year was registered Democrats were equal to what registered Republicans did in turnout. Every election since oh eight, registered Republicans have been five points higher registered Democrats only at the state average. And if you look at the racial dynamics we've seen in the past several elections, black registered voters have a lower than statewide turnout rate. And it was interesting that in 2022 with Beasley, the Democrat, an African American woman running us as a first black turnout did not meet the statewide average. So I think that there's a combination of things playing itself out, but campaigns have to understand the targeting and the mobilization, and they have got to be focused on that. And I think for the Harris campaign, the fascinating thing that I've seen is she's got 25 field offices in North Carolina that built on what Biden was doing, but she expanded. That's more than Barack Obama did in oh eight. And there has never been that kind of investment on the ground that we'll have to see if it pays off,

Emilia Rivadeneira 36:27
yeah, yeah, for sure. And I wanted to bring that up as well, because, you know, persuasion can do so much.

Michael Bitzer 36:36
And persuade, I mean, a lot of people see all these negative ads and are thinking, you know, well, that doesn't apply to me. You know, I'm going to discount it. There is a small portion, but the persuasion effect is fairly mooted once you get closer and closer to the election, because people's partisan loyalties really kind of harden and get solidified, and so it'll be interesting to see how they take that,

Emilia Rivadeneira 37:05
right? And another thing I wanted to bring up, it was mentioned, actually in one of your blog posts. So you mentioned that the real test of voter enthusiasm, like what we have been like talking about, will be likely to begin on october 17 with the start of early in person voting. And so I wanted to ask you, what can we expect from this period of time of like early voting? Yeah,

Michael Bitzer 37:32
so as we're recording it, we have found out that absentee by mail ballots have been put on hold. So that's a new wrinkle into all of this that we'll have to see how it kind of plays out. Usually, mail in voting is about three to 4% of the total votes. So in 2020 we had five and a half million votes cast. About 3% of them came by the mail, the significant bulk, well over 60% of the votes cast will be done in that in person, early voting, starting on october 17 and running to the Saturday right before General Election Day. People love the convenience of early voting. North Carolinians have taken to this and just run with it. And early on, I think that that was one of the reasons why Barack Obama did so well to flip this state, because they can bank ballots. And if you know, I am looking to these targeted voters, and if these voters on this side have already banked their ballot, I don't have to worry about them. They are done. I can now move on and focus on some others. And you know, at first it was heavily Democratic. Now, based on 2020 numbers, Republicans have caught up, and it's at parity. We'll have to see how this year plays out. But you know the power of early voting to bank those ballots and then move on to your next target group. I actually vote on election day because I can walk into the my precinct, get a ballot, fill it out, walk out. I'm done in five minutes. When I went to go early vote, I was standing in line, and I looked at it one day and I went, you know, better than this bit, sir. I mean, you know that the lines are going to be out the door for early voting. Just vote on Election Day. So that's what I do. Yeah.

Emilia Rivadeneira 39:43
And another interesting thing that I wanted to bring up about border turnout and engagement as well is the study dacala college did I also like saw it and like the survey, which reveals that over 70% Out of North Carolinians expressed confidence in this election, like the 2024 election. And so how this level of confidence you think will influence voter turnout in this election?

Michael Bitzer 40:13
Yeah, I think that this is a fundamental component of our grand experiment in self governance, and that is, do the voters, who have the ultimate power through their votes, have confidence that their votes will be counted? And I think for a baseline, you know, this was the first real in depth study that Catawba College and YouGov did together to kind of get a sense of North Carolina's public opinion about it. I think 70% is good. Would I love to see it at 90% yes, I think that with the past several years of questions, of concerns, and let's be frank about it, some candidates exploiting the power of misinformation and disinformation. I think 70% is a good benchmark, but we need to be better at it. And I think what we have found through two groups, one of which is doing a series of town halls across the state to introduce what happens on election day. How does the preparation begin for casting ballots? Once people know the information and once people understand the processes, particularly if it's their local community, that confidence even goes higher. It's when you start asking, Well, are you confident that nor that New York's going to count their votes accurately, or Texas or Florida? That's when you know far removed people go I don't know about their systems. I can't trust them. I can trust my local I can trust my county to count my votes accurately. So that's kind of the positive thing. The one concern out of that data was a very clear partisan divide that Democrats consistently had greater confidence than Republicans. And I think we as a general public need a better understanding, but we also need to make sure we don't accept whatever somebody is saying as the gospel truth without I need to do a little research. I need to look into this to better understand it.

Emilia Rivadeneira 42:31
Right? And what does this percentage, you know, 70% signify for our democracy, just in general, like you know, having that confidence that our boats will be counted accurately. I

Michael Bitzer 42:46
think that that is a positive, you know, if it had been 5050, I would have great concern, right for that. I think we are in a very tumultuous time, political polarization is rampant, the lack of trust in basic institutions. It's no surprise that people are concerned. But I think having confidence in the main participatory manner that people can govern themselves in this democratic republic of ours. Gives me some hope that we've got work to do, but we've always had work to do in the United States. Let's kind of build on it, right?

Emilia Rivadeneira 43:35
Yeah. Another thing that I wanted to touch was so I've seen in online media as well, that North Carolina is considered a purple state, yes. So I wanted to ask you your thoughts on this. Is this true?

Michael Bitzer 43:52
Well, if you consider purple to be within and this is where the geeky math person comes out and political scientist, if you consider purple to be anywhere from 45 to 55 we are dead in the middle. We are typically a 5149 state dependent on the level of the election. So at the federal level, US President, US Senate, we're typically 5149 for things like the governor race. We're 5149 for the Democrats. So combine those two. We are very and this has been true since 2008 we're very much a purple state, and I think we reflect a lot of the national dynamics as well, urban versus rural, generational politics, the polarization between the partisanship, I think we are kind of a Petri dish microcosm of what the national dynamics are like here in North Carolina, right?

Emilia Rivadeneira 44:58
Yeah. Oh. Um, and moving on to like, a more like national, kind of like level issue, both candidates already picked their bias, you know, like Vice President. And I wanted to ask you, what does each vice president candidate has to bring to the ticket? You know,

Michael Bitzer 45:20
that's a great question. I think some of the research in political science says it's not necessarily the person that gets picked as vice president. It's, what does this say about the presidential candidate? That's kind of the greatest effect that a VP candidate pick has, I think, for the Trump Vance ticket, what JD Vance brings is a confirmation of where the Republican Party is now, particularly under Donald Trump. I think what the Republican Party has gone through is really an evolution to Trumpism, and he Vance reflects that kind of Trumpism, Republicanism that Trump wanted to see in his own vice president. I mean, you know, if Mike Pence, you know, was, was everything that Donald Trump thought he was, he would pick him again? Well, he didn't, and I think he was looking for somebody that would be very much the yes man to Trump Waltz is a fascinating pick on the Democratic side. You know, he used to represent a fairly rural congressional district in Minnesota. He's a governor, but he is much more of a progressive kind of governor from Minnesota. And I think what Harris looked at with waltz was very much somebody that can join me and present a kind of happy warrior, but you know, you punch me, I'm going to punch you right back, kind of thing. And I think you know that debate between Walt and Harris is really going to be fascinating as well.

Emilia Rivadeneira 47:16
Yeah, for sure. And wait now that we're on the issue of the debate of Sure. What are your thoughts on that? Like, I want to hear a little bit more

Michael Bitzer 47:26
about that. Yeah, you know, I just think that that's going to be a fun one to watch. Certainly have your popcorn pop, because it's going to be a great TV episode. You know, both men are going to come again, like their presidential candidates, they're going to come with talking points, key ideas that they want to make the question is, how do they interact with each other, and how do they respond to each other? And I think Vance is certainly going to tout the strong Trump Republican platform and ideas. He's doing that on the SIR on the talking circuit. So that's what VPS are designed to do. Waltz is much more of a kind of free agent at times and and can basically go his own direction, but still advance Harris's general points. So I think the two of them, you know, sometimes VPS are seen as the pit bulls of the presidential ticket that may be leaving the President's not to be the attack dogs, but their role is to go after each other. We may see a lot of that in that particular debate as well. Interesting,

Emilia Rivadeneira 48:45
yeah, I'll definitely have my pop coming up on that one. And another question on the BP side is, so what are the campaign's message framing? You know, like, I feel like we have seen a lot of that, especially on social media. Well, I'm on social media a lot, and I've definitely seen a lot of that. So I wanted to ask you,

Michael Bitzer 49:06
yeah, I think you know, the main core of any campaign is really framing a theme, describing it in a certain tone, and delivering it throughout the timing of the of the campaign. And I think the major themes you know, on the Republican side, it's very clear, it's a resurgence of Make America Great Again. It's it's always about that dynamic. To me. The question about that is, have we reached the end of the Reagan coalition, and with this new generational dynamic that's potentially at play, is it time for a new kind of coalition to be developed? We're going to have to wait and see how that plays out. But in. It feels very much like, you know, we want to go back into the past. Harris has been very intentional in saying we're not going back. We're looking forward. And that kind of theme, that kind of tone, a positive tone, to her campaign. I think, you know, if we're talking about the VP debate and the presidential debate, I think that's going to be the way that both sides are going to frame their perspective and then attack the other side. So, you know, as you're watching these debates kind of unfold, think about, how are they positioning themselves. How are they framing, what the the core fight is in this campaign? Is it future bound, or is it past bound? Is it, well, if they get into power, it's going to be doom and gloom. Or, you know, we're going to try and present a hopeful, you know, sense of things. I think those kinds of fundamentals, that's where voters tend to naturally gravitate to.

Emilia Rivadeneira 51:06
No, yeah, for sure. And that's definitely something that I've I think, you know, Gen C or college students are gonna be focused on too, as well. Yeah,

Michael Bitzer 51:16
I think, and certainly the age dynamic, I mean that that was the biggest issue, I think, with the crisis of confidence before July 21 in Biden, was he? Is he able to really relate to the broad spectrum? I think with Harris's campaign now, Trump is now the candidate of the older age, and how does that play into this dynamic as well? Some fascinating questions we'll have to kind of watch unfold. No,

Emilia Rivadeneira 51:50
yeah, for sure. And also I wanted to ask you as well, you know, we have talked about the presidential debate and like BP candidates and all of that. But in your opinion, what? What are other kind of issues or developments that US college students or North Carolinians in general should be on the lookout for, like, the next couple of weeks, you know, heading to elections? Yeah,

Michael Bitzer 52:15
I think certainly you know, first and foremost, make sure you're registered to vote. You've got a deadline of october 11 to get formally registered. That does not necessarily mean you can't get registered after that, but that's the deadline that that we have in state law. You can register and cast an early ballot at the same time, and it's typically what we call same day registration. If you miss that october 11 deadline, and then when early voting starts on october 17, you're not registered. Have no fear. You can go to an early voting site say, I want to register and cast a ballot, and they'll do that at the same time. So certainly, being registered is the foremost thing to being able to cast a ballot. I think, you know, the sense of deep divide in our politics, and I think that is it is really evident within the Gen Z cohort that y'all have seen the division, the anger, the constant fighting, and I think it is a perception of I don't want to be labeled with that, so I'm going to be registered as unaffiliated. Now that doesn't necessarily mean you're not partisan. You're just the labels have become so toxic that you don't want that affiliation necessarily. But I think taking the time to understand the candidates, you know, there are more candidates and offices than just president and Governor. We are electing nine other statewide executive officers, Attorney General, Superintendent of Public Instruction. We're electing members of the US House of Representatives. We're electing members to the state legislature that determines state budgets for NC State University. How much is tuition going to be Well, partly due to how much state funding you get from the legislature having a basic understanding of some of the policy issues that you are concerned about, but then taking the time to learn where the candidates stand on those issues. And in particularly, you know, if a candidate shows up on campus or they're having a town hall, go ask them, Where do you stand on this issue? Because ultimately, the political power rests with us. We the People, and if we won, our politics. Nations and elected officials to be accountable. We need to be accountable to ourselves, to ask them the hard questions. Where do you stand on this issue? And to have the knowledge to be able to ask those questions, right

Emilia Rivadeneira 55:12
for sure, and another question you bring up something really important that it's you know, college students should ask that question of, like, what matters? Yeah, to me, what matters, like, what policies? And I know that if we go through all of the policies of each candidate, this episode would be just too long, yeah, um, but I wanted to ask you, like, what do you think are those like, policies of each candidate that would like, you know, like college students are in college students minds, like, in your opinion, like, kind of like a mini recap, I know that's, you know, like,

Michael Bitzer 55:53
Well, I think certainly you know, economics is always going to be at the forefront. And for most college students, the question is, am I going to get a job? Can I make an earn a living after college? And so, certainly, you know, can I buy things? Can I, you know, pay my rent? You know, those kinds of basic economic issues are always at the forefront of of of all voters, not just college students, but I think certainly things like the cost of education. I think, you know, for some folks, the issue of reproductive rights and abortion rights, for others, its concerns about, you know, what is the role of immigration into our society. I know that on some college campuses, the Gaza Israeli situation has become very pronounced in terms of concerns and issues. So there's no one designated policy area, I think, and this is true for all ages of voters, but if voters don't show up, who are concerned about a policy issue, but they choose not to show up, that means they're not only missing out on their vote getting expressed but they're missing out on their policy emphasis, their policy focus, getting missed out as well. And you know, I just think that we have a unique system of governance. It has its flaws, but I always remind students, you know, in the preamble, it doesn't say, in order to make a perfect union, it's to make a more perfect union, and in order for us to continue moving towards that more perfect union, we the people have to show up. We the People have to participate. We have to know what our issues are and get them conveyed to our elected officials

Emilia Rivadeneira 58:10
right for sure. So this has been a very insightful interview. Thank you so much for being in the program. Is there anything else you would like to add?

Michael Bitzer 58:22
No, I think, you know, just all I can do is, is say, raise the rate, folks, you know, make it go from 61 to Let's shoot for 70. You know, 70% of Gen Z years showing up. I think if, if that happens, there will be a seismic shift in North Carolina politics that will feel like a political earthquake, but it's going to take people doing the hard work and showing up. Yeah, for sure.

Emilia Rivadeneira 58:56
Thank you so much.

Michael Bitzer 58:58
It's been my pleasure. Thank you.

Emilia Rivadeneira 59:05
This has been your host, Emilia Renee, thanks for listening to eye on the triangle for back episodes of the show. Go to wknc.or/podcasts music in today's episode is Krakatoa by Noah Stark, licensed under creative call.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai